2017 Oscar Predictions

Every year I furiously watch as many Oscar nominated films as I can to put together my predictions list. Here’s what I’m thinking for this year:

Best Actor:

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington – Fences

Who I think should win: Viggo Mortensen’s performance was so far reaching from what we know him for. Also, it showed layers that I think were lacking in the other performances. But unfortunately is was an indie film that didn’t get a lot of distribution.

Who will win: I think at this point, Denzel’s edged out Casey Affleck because of Affleck’s controversy surrounding the two sexual harassment lawsuits he conveniently settled before the start of an aggressive award season. Even though Denzel has his Tony from the same performance, Fences was completely Viola Davis’ movie, but I still think he can expect an Oscar to keep his Tony company.

Best Actress:

Isabell Huppert – Elle

Ruth Negga – Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Who I think should win: Although I have a soft spot for foreign actresses and Isabell Huppert won the Golden Globe and was not nominated for a SAG, Elle is a difficult movie to watch, and I think that will turn off academy voters. Plus, she doesn’t get really ugly in it and for a movie about rape to hit home in a looks obsessed industry, she would have to get ugly – think Charlize Theron, Hallie Berry – and Isabell just…doesn’t. Ruth Negga, however, shows such depth and beauty in Loving that you want to watch it more than once. But, this performance was so quiet, it won’t get a lot of attention.

Who will win: Emma Stone has taken almost every award out there, even though she’s far from the best performance out of the five. I’m mean, I was so incredibly distracted by her the prominence of her skinny shoulder blades sticking awkwardly out of her dress, I could barely ignore the bad singing. The industry has spoken – she’ll get it.

Best Supporting Actor:

Maherhala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Who I think should win: This category is always difficult. Maherahal Ali’s performance was so memorable it swept this category all award season, with the exception of the Golden Globe. But Dev Patel in Lion was so far from the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel with his emotional arc that you couldn’t help but root for him. It’s a real tossup between these two.

Who will win: Maherahal Ali. His portrayal of a drug dealer and father figure has you liking and hating him at the same time. Tough. Very tough.

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis – Fences

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Who I think should win: Naomie Harris’ performance was really too short to be considered, even though Judy Dench’s three minute performance in Shakespeare in Love garnered her the statue.  Michelle Williams’ role was small and her devastating final scene with Affleck rivals that of Viola Davis. Davis also took home the Tony for her stage performance and she has swept every one this award season. Her moving scene when she lets Denzel have it is so powerful, it makes almost every woman want to stand up and cheer.

Who will win: Viola Davis. She was absolutely on fire in Fences. She’ll take it home, and I can’t wait to hear her acceptance speech.

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Who I think should win: Tough. I have to admit that nothing really moved me this year as much as Moonlight. Such terrible subjects to a terrible story. La La Land left me underwhelmed. Damien Chazelle’s attempt at being the next Orson Wells with his one continuous opening shot was lack luster. And I had enough of leading actors being cast as singers with Pierce Brosnan in Mama Mia and Russell Crowe in Les Miserables – yeah, I said it!!  Arrival was over rated and honestly took way too much brainpower, removing watchers from the story to try to figure out the timeline. Where is she? Who knows what? What, wait? What time is it? Too hard. Manchester by the Sea, although well executed, fell short when it came to Moonlight. And as much as Casey Affleck seemed to stretch in his role, he always comes across as a bit whiney to me. Mel Gibson…well, I won’t lie to you, the film wasn’t good enough for me to forgive his drunken tirade on the side of Pacific Coast Highway.

Who will win: As much as I disagree – it’s Damien’s this year. Hollywood is in the mood to pour some love on an extremely over rated film – just like the horrible film Crash was elevated to an okay film to a masterpiece examining social issues. Hooey. It’s all hooey. But it’s also Hollywood.

Best Picture:

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Who I think should win: It’s pretty well thought that Best Director and Best Picture usually go to the same project. Although last year they did switch it up with Spotlight winning best picture and best director going to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman. Hell or High Water was way too reminiscent of True Grit (for me) and as much as I feel Hidden Figures should be applauded, the story wasn’t strong enough for me. Hacksaw Ridge is the classic Hollywood winner, but it’s been way overshadowed by the fluff of La La Land and the insightfulness of Moonlight and Lion. Arrival had beautiful cinematography, but did I mention it was…REALLY CONFUSING!!!???  All in all, if you ask me what film moved me the most, it was Moonlight by far. But it won’t win.

Who will win: La La Land. This mediocre musical with super bad singers has managed to elbow its way to the front – a by product of the election and the terrible crap that has transpired in political circles. Hollywood would rather place its highest honor on a relatively forgettable film than reward something for serious thought or groundbreaking topics. It wouldn’t be the first time. Plus, La La Land represents the want and need of art in one’s life, as well as love and who doesn’t want both of those?

So those are my thoughts for the big ticket categories. Oscars are starting any minute tonight. Happy watching!

Oscars are over. Now what?

So all the pomp and circumstance around the Oscars is over. Ellen DeGeneres headed up a great party, even providing her guests pizza. And who knew that all those famous people could photo bomb so well? Overall, it was an entertaining evening with not many surprises outside John Travolta’s new toupee and his terrible faux pas – who the hell is Adele Nazeem? Poor Idina.

John Travolta, Idina Menzel, Oscars Show

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Oscar Nom – Beasts of the Southern Wild

It’s award season people! And that means catching up on all the movies you wanted to see when they were first released and didn’t. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is one of these movies for me. I had heard from friends and colleagues that it was lyrical and moving and the young lead, Oscar nominated Ouvenzhane Wallis (who was six when she filmed the movie now 9 and has set a new record of being the youngest actress to be nominated, beating out the 12-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes from WHALE RIDER) is a wonder.

Wallis is good – like a lot of child actors. For her first try at acting she is natural and believable. I think it is due to the close to the last scene in the movie (I won’t include any spoilers so I won’t ruin it for the three people that read this blog, including my mother) that cinched her the nomination, forcing out other actresses such as Marion Cotillard for RUST AND BONE and Helen Mirren for HITCHCOCK.

It’s the story of this movie that doesn’t bode well. Even the script is also Oscar nominated for best adaptation, it was convoluted and the expectation for the audience to fall into the category of suspended disbelief was over estimated. There is some fable-like visuals that are supposed to propel the story forward but stop short leave the viewer wondering whose story is this movie telling?

I will fully admit, when you wait to see a movie as long as I did this one, one’s expectations are likely to grow rigid. I thought this film would be much more whimsical and have more of a fantasy-like built world (like PAN’S LABYRINTH – a beautiful film by Guillermo del Toro – Netflix it today!), but instead it is chocked full of a lot of themes that didn’t have the opportunity to be fully developed, making the story unsatisfying on a lot of levels. This leads to the audience being introduced to a fantasy/fable story line, but with no guide to determine the correct course. I lose my geography in the story more than once, which results in me being totally pulled out and super reluctant to get back in.  The camera work is also a hodge podge of techniques and angles that didn’t add to the storytelling – particularly the hand-held shaky shots.

The first-time Oscar nominated director, Benh Zeitlin, shows great promise, and I think we will see more of him in the future as he hones his talent and decides what kind of director he wants to be. But this movie could have used a more seasoned director who has a healthier grasp on how to lead an audience through a rather shaky script.

What did you think of this movie?